Monday, November 21, 2011

Technology predictions revisited

Chris Davis

There's nothing quite like keeping a record of one's predictions so one can revisit them at a later date and wonder who the misinformed fool was.

So here goes, my top 12 Tech predictions (from July 22, 2010) , in no particular order, for the next wave of change, probably over the next couple of years:

1: Open Source software /ideology will insinuate itself into a prominent position over the next couple of years.  Eventually we will wonder why we ever put up with the self proprietary ideologies espoused by Microsoft and Apple.

2: Ipad users will wonder how they got so hoodwinked when they see better devices in the hands of those they want to impress, and find out those better devices cost less, and are far more compatible with peripheral devices.  Ipod users will continue to realise they don't control their music collection, Apple does.

3: We will (almost) all buy at least one more version of Windows before the concept of buying an oerating system becomes obsolete.

4:  Now that Apple is on the top rung, Apple users will find out just how many holes there are for the bad guys to exploit.

5: The www will crash or be crashed, stunning millions of us into abject confusion.  Peer to peer networks will become the norm, and the web will evolve towards decentralization.

6: The current methods of bootlegging will be lawyered out of business, months after most people have moved to whatever the newer way will be.

7: Fox will continue to misinform its audience. When that doesn't work, they'll just lie.

8: Google will continue its rise to dominance, but will have to struggle to not become evil.

9: People will refuse to bankrupt themselves for basic cell phone service. Google will force the major players to change their game. For many it will be too late.

10: Technology implants will hit the mainstream.  This will either be the beginning of the end or the end of the beginning.

11: Tv as we know it will die and be reborn as an internet driven consumer directed multiverse. Sitcoms: Dead or shorter.  Budgets: Slashed except for action flicks and Fantasy.  News Programs: Will be online-based, with relevance being measured in minutes, not hours or days.

12: The internet driven artistic revolution is unlike anything the world has ever known, and will continue.  None of the old rules apply, if "old" means in the last 150 years.  The corporate mind will try to figure out how to get control back.  The people will resist, and the wave of user generated content will continue to grow until it almost entirely overwhelms traditional media.  The genie will not go back in the bottle willingly.

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